In the framework of the African Futures Project, a joint undertaking between HSF, the ISS and the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures at Denver University, the aim of the activities in 2013 is to contribute to the implementation of South Africa’s National Development Plan (NPD), also known as Vision 2030.
Quantitative models have long been used as a tool for the creation of long-term national development plans. International Futures (IFs) is a large-scale integrated global modeling system. The broad purpose of IFs is to serve as a thinking tool for the analysis of long-term country-specific, regional, and global futures across multiple, interacting issue areas.
The NPD was launched during 2012 by the South African National Planning Commission and was adopted by Cabinet in December 2012. Vision 2030 aims to reduce poverty and eliminate inequality by 2030. This planning document can be complemented with further quantitative analysis to explore and bridge possible gaps between what is desired and what are ambitious but reasonable rates of progress for development in South Africa.
In early April 2013, a workshop with South African experts was held with the aim of validating the statistical data collected by Frederick S. Pardee Center staff for the South African Futures model. The experts were asked to critically assess and review the data and base-case forecasts so as to identify possible data gaps, inaccuracies or data reconciliation issues. The input received during the workshop will be used to improve the data and scenarios contained in the South African Futures model.
The model will be made available later in 2013, together with a policy brief and video.
The African Futures project has produced several policy briefs and videos in the last three years. The policy briefs include the following (the rest are available on our publications page):
Malaria No More: Expectations for Eradication
ISS African Futures Brief No. 5, 30 November 2012, supported by the Hanns Seidel Foundation
Cultivating the Future: Exploring the Potential and Impact of a Green Revolution in Africa
ISS African Futures Brief No. 4, 29 August 2012, supported by the Hanns Seidel Foundation