Launch of important ISS Research Report
DR Congo Country Analysis
Cover image of the new report published on the comprehensive "African Futures" platform
ISS
African Futures Research
The new report by the African Futures & Innovation Team at the Institute for Security Studies Pretoria was published as a country study on the African Futures platform - a unique, free data and knowledge hub online. In its geographic section, the comprehensive platform offers longterm scenario analyses for all 54 countries in Africa, as well as the regional economic communities and income group country categories. The thematic section shines light on 10 themes, such as Education, Infrastructure, Agriculture and Demographis, and 4 key impact areas, including Energy, Climate, Gender and Work/Jobs. Data based analyses use the “International Futures” software model to develop different scenarios. Policy recommendations focus on ambitious yet realistic interventions in different sectors and their impact on development trajectories until 2043. The research is aligned with the AU Agenda 2063, and the African Futures Team works in a partnership with AUDA-NEPAD, the AU Development Organisation as well.
A significant further increase in GDP appears to be achievable with strategic policy interventions in key areas
ISS
Focus on the DRC
The DR Congo, the second largest country in Africa, has very valuable mineral ressources, also crucial for the global energy transition - cobalt, copper, tin, tungsten, tantalum. However, the DRC is still known for widespread poverty and ongoing conflicts with regional implications. The report outlines the country’s current development path and suggests ambitious yet possible interventions in key policy areas to arrive at a combined best possible scenario. If achieved, it would improve the fortunes of the DRC and its people by 2043 dramatically, compared to the current path: an additional decline in poverty by about 20 % points (37 Million people), and a further increase in GDP per capita by 61 % points.
In validating and discussing the findings of its analyses, the AFI Team consulted experts and other stakeholders in the DRC – and the research found a media echo there as well.
ISS researchers had engagements with experts and decision makers in the DRC, and the study found interest in media there
ISS
Here are some of the key insights contained in the new report:
- Despite some signs of improvements, the DR Congo is still facing huge development challenges of chronic poverty and underdevelopment, influenced by political instability and ineffective governance.
- Eight sectoral scenarios were developed by the authors: Demographics and Health; Agriculture; Education; Manufacturing; the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA); Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging; Financial Flows; and Governance – and each is benchmarked with suggested interventions to present an ambitious yet reasonable aspiration for its sector, impacting economic and social indicators.
- The Manufacturing scenario will have the most significant impact on GDP per capita by 2043, followed by Governance and the AfCFTA scenarios. However, in the short to medium term (2026-2035), the Agriculture scenario will have the largest impact, followed by the Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenarios.
- The Manufacturing, Governance and Education scenarios will have the largest impact on reducing poverty in the DR Congo by 2043. In the short term (2026-2030), it will be the Agriculture, Manufacturing and Infrastructure scenarios.
- In the Combined scenario for all 8 sectors, DR Congo’s GDP per capita will increase by 61% relative to the Current Path forecast by 2043. Its economy will be 73% larger than the Current Path forecast for that year. In this combined scenario, poverty in DR Congo will decrease to 6.6% or 11.2 million people, compared to 26.1% (48.1 million people) in the Current Path forecast.
Potential contributions by interventions in different sectors and their synergy to an improved development trajectory
ISS
The report makes specific recommendations – among them the following:
- Promote good governance and increase capacity to mobilise revenue mobilisation to sustain public investment. Stronger institutions, particularly oversight and monitoring, are crucial. Transparency is important on new mining contracts, audits of state-owned enterprises, resource agreements with foreign governments, and government spending, including within the security agencies. The independence of the judiciary must be confirmed.
- Invest in agriculture to boost productivity and commercialisation. Focus on new technologies, such as solar power for irrigation and cooling, access to high-yield, resistant seedlings, fertilisers, and credit guarantees for farmers, climate-resilient infrastructure and supporting R&D activities.
- Focus investment on (vocational) education and training, health and demographics This includes curriculum reform in collaboration with the private sector to meet needs of the labour market and access to affordable healthcare and contraceptives
- Infrastructure development is crucial: provide roads and rail, electricity (also min-grid and off-grid renewable energy solutions), safe water supply, and ICT infrastructure.
- Economic diversification and industrialisation: Promote downstream beneficiation and undertake reforms in the business environment aimed at reducing business costs and risks by improving the quality of business regulation. Simplify administrative procedures and formalities to make it easier for firms, specifically small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to do business, to test new ideas and to grow. Encourage citizens to build an entrepreneurial mindset to shift labour from the large informal sector to businesses in the formal economy; lower barriers for entry. Attract manufacturing FDI to promote international-local linkages
Cover image of the short Blog article which presents a concise overview of the DRC Report's insights
ISS
Read the incisive report with policy recommendations here:
A recording of the public launch event at the ISS is available online: “Can Tshisekedi’s second term deliver inclusive growth for DRC?” - Watch it here:
A concise Blog article by Dr. Blessing Chipanda about the report was published on the African Futures Platform:
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