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Important ISS Research Report
“Murder trends in South Africa’s deadliest provinces”

This ISS Policy Brief uses data and analysis to paint a stark, nuanced picture of record murder rates in the country and the reasons behind them. The report’s productive, urgent recommendations show that government and police must prioritize murder-reduction partnerships to address the crisis.

Understanding escalating levels of murder in South Africa - Launch event invitation cover image

Understanding escalating levels of murder in South Africa - Launch event invitation cover image

ISS

The report on soaring murder levels in South Africa just published by the Institute for Security Studies contains a wealth of information and analyses on the deteriorating situation which is worth sharing and quoting. We draw on the report and related publications for the overview below.

The South African per-capita murder rate has steadily escalated since 2011/12, when it was at its lowest since 1994. The 2022/23 rate of 45 per 100 000 is the highest in 20 years.

“On average, 75 people were killed every day over the last year. Between the birth of democracy in 1994 and 2012, the murder rate dropped by 55% to its lowest level of 29.5 per 100 000. Since then, socio-economic stagnation and dysfunctional criminal justice institutions have contributed to a 53% escalation in the rate … But despite this crisis of violent crime, the government has not publicly acknowledged the need for a focused response to the problem, which is devastating lives, families and communities.” (ISS Media Release)

But focusing on national murder trends alone is misleading as trends vary greatly across the nine provinces. The current high per-capita murder rate is driven by high rates in the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, the Western Cape and Gauteng. While three of them continue to show a deteriorating situation, figures in the Western Cape – while still very high - have declined over the past 5 years.

Here are some of the key findings contained in the new report:

  • South African murder rates vary considerably across the 9 provinces – they are highest in the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, the Western Cape and Gauteng, where 83 % of all murders occurred. At a local level, half of these violent crimes occur in only 12% of the country’s 1 162 police precincts
  • The 4 provinces above also showed the highest increases over the past 10 years; however, the Western Cape observed a decrease in the past 5 years
  • In 2022/23, the Eastern Cape had the highest per capita murder rate (71 per 100 000), followed by KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape (56 per 100 000 each).
  • Many experts believe that the entrenchment and growth of organised crime has played a major role in the increasing number of murders.
  • Available information shows that the factors and circumstances driving murder trends differ from province to province. More in-depth research and analysis to understand them is needed for effective work to reduce the numbers of murders.

The report makes specific recommendations:

  • Government and society must prioritise reducing murder rates, which are high and increasing
  • The collection of data about murder, and the analysis thereof must be improved
  • One-size-fits-all approaches to addressing murder are unlikely to be effective. Responses should be adapted to respond to the drivers of murder focusing on high-murder localities. Priority should be given to understanding and addressing murder in the four provinces with the highest per-capita murder rates.
  • Lessons about good practice in understanding and addressing murder in different localities should be recorded and disseminated
  • The government should establish partnerships with academic and civil society organisations to assess available data. In addition, data should be better analysed to develop context-specific murder reduction strategies and interventions for different provinces and high murder policing precincts, cities and provinces

 

Read the incisive report with policy recommendations here:

Policy Brief: Murder trends in South Africa’s deadliest provinces

 

A recording of the public launch event at the ISS is available – watch it here:

ISS Live: Understanding escalating murder levels in South Africa

 

The Institute for Security Studies published a media release based on the new report – read it here:Analysis of Murder in South Africa’s deadliest provinces calls for policing rethink

 

 

 

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