Balancing growing energy demand with the transition to renewables
Research on Africa’s energy future
Cover image of the comprehensive new Energy report
ISS
A comprehensive report by the African Futures & Innovation team at the Institute for Security Studies provides key insights for dealing with these questions. The data-based research was published recently on the “African Futures” platform - a comprehensive data and knowledge hub. The unique platform offers long-term scenario analyses for all 54 countries on the continent, as well as regional economic communities and income group country categories. The thematic section focusses on 10 themes, such as Infrastructure, Agriculture, Education and Demographis, and 4 key impact areas, including Energy, Climate, Gender and Work/Jobs. The African Futures Team works in a partnership with AUDA-NEPAD, the AU Development Organisation, and the research is aligned with the AU Agenda 2063.
The report outlines Africa’s current development path and expected energy demand, and it examines a suite of policies to reduce fossil fuel use, ramp up other types of energy production and reduce carbon emissions. This is explored in the context of an accelerated development scenario as well, which could be achieved via strategic interventions in key sectors of African societies.
Total energy demand expected for different world regions
ISS
Here are some of the key insights contained in the new report:
- Energy is essential for economic growth and human progress. Rapid human development requires 8.6 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) per person annually – and Africa is currently only at 3.2 BOE. The average for the rest of the world is 13.6. Africa has significant energy potential, yet the continent is energy poor so far. It should also be noted that only 57 % of its people currently have access to electricity – while most African countries are expected to have near universal access by 2050.
- The energy demand per person in Africa – while it’s expected to grow - will still remain well below that of other world regions. The continent’s overall energy demand will however increase hugely in decades to come, due to development and population growth – the continent’s population is expected to grow from 18 % of the world in 2023 to 25 % by 2050 and 28 % by 2063. Africa's share of global carbon emissions from fossil fuels is currently under 5 %. It will remain significantly below its share of the global population, even on a high-growth forecast. Africa must however embark upon a low-emissions pathway from fossil fuels, in its own and global interests. With clear policies and determined leadership, many African countries can embark on an early transition to reduce fossil fuel use. In addition to renewables, Africa will need significant amounts of nuclear energy, more hydro and energy storage.
- At the same time, however, in Africa, it would still not be possible to close the production gap that would be left with the ending of coal production by 2040 and a drastic reduction in oil and gas by 2050 as currently recommended by UNEP. This would seriously constrain Africa’s much needed development, so an adjustment will be required – the report argues that gas needs to be phased out more slowly.
- Considerable financial support is needed to facilitate Africa’s energy transition, and several complex approaches, including a differentiated global carbon tax, should be pursued by diverse international stakeholders. With a differentiated global carbon tax, high emitters and those that benefitted from a high carbon growth paths would contribute more than others. The continent may also be able to trade its potential as a carbon sink.
- Moving towards a low carbon economy offers development opportunities for Africa through increased benficiation, local production and manufacturing.
Recommendations overview slide from the report
ISS
The report makes specific recommendations – among them the following:
- To meet its growing energy demand, Africa will need more time to phase out gas than currently expected. The continent must be provided room to exploit its gas endowment, with due consideration of the challenge of stranded assets.
- The report points to the need for a differentiated global carbon tax, to fund the loss and damage fund and Africa’s energy transition. It emphasizes support that Africa would need from multilateral funding institutions, private sector partners in the West, development agencies and bilateral support from high-income countries for the realisation of a viable carbon emissions pathway, including for selected exploration and production of gas.
- In addition to debt relief and suspension, multilateral development banks need to implement the Climate Resilient Debt Clauses (CRDCs) developed in response to the Sustainable Debt Coalition created at COP27 in Egypt and the use of debt-for-nature or debt-for-climate swaps to strengthen recipient countries.
- Africa should contribute to carbon mitigation through land and forest management, and achieve reductions in electricity demand through energy and material efficiency measures, implementing stricter building codes and energy standards. More attention must also be paid to repurposing solid waste and efforts towards the circular economy.
- Knowledge transfer and domestic investment in exchange for the export of beneficiated raw materials should be front and centre in an African strategy to leverage the associated opportunities.
Read the incisive report with policy recommendations here:
A recording of the public launch event at the ISS is available online - Watch it here:
Read a concise African Futures Blog article sharing key insights from the research report:
How will Africa navigate its future energy transition?
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