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New report outlines policy options and their potential
Shaping South Africa's Future

Participants experienced fascinating discussions at the inspiring launch of the new South Africa report by our "African Futures & Innovation" partner team at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria. We co-hosted the much-awaited event with News24 this week.

 

Invite: Invitation for the panel discussion

Invitation for the panel discussion

ISS

Policy options for South Africa in a changing world

Well over 200 people from many countries, among them decision makers from diverse sectors, joined the much-awaited online event.

Ashor Sarupen, South Africa's Deputy Minister of Finance, gave an illuminating keynote address, followed by renowned experts and decision-makers on the panel:

  • Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Head, African Futures & Innovation, ISS
  • Busisiwe Mavuso, CEO, Business Leadership South Africa
  • Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist, Agbiz

A much-respected journalist, Carol Paton, Writer at Large, News24, facilitated a very focused solution-oriented discussion. 

Drawing on the strategic foresight and scenario modelling of the new study launched, the debate showed how deliberate policy interventions could improve the country’s growth trajectory. Participants emphasized opportunities for reform which the new Government of National Unity presents, even amidst global uncertainty.

 

 

South Africa: the cover image from the summary slides in the new report

South Africa: the cover image from the summary slides in the new report

ISS

The potential of policy interventions

The recent modelling shows how much more rapidly the country could grow, with the right choices.

The new African Futures long-term scenario study analyses South Africa’s Current Path prospects, i.e. its likely trajectory to 2043 – and it shows how inclusive development can be enhanced by strategic interventions in eight high-potential sectors. 

The report is full of interactive graphs, visualising the current path and different scenario trajectories.

 

 

Here are some key insights:

* SA's population will reach 77.1 million by 2043. The economy is expected to grow modestly, by 2.3% annually. 

Poverty rates are anticipated to decline only from 62% in 2023 to 58% by 2043 – this is due to the small informal economy, high unemployment, and extreme inequality.

* Eight sectoral scenarios outline ambitious but reasonable aspirations to enhance inclusive development: Demographics & Health; Agriculture; Education; Manufacturing; the African Continental Free Trade Area; Large Infrastructure & Leapfrogging; Financial Flows and Governance.

* Integrating all 8 into a Combined scenario shows a substantial potential uplift in SA’s economic and social outcomes by 2043: annual growth of 4.4% instead of 2.3%, an economy that is 53% larger, and poverty at 50%, not 58%. GDP per capita would be 33% above the Current Path. 

* The Manufacturing scenario shows the largest growth in GDP per capita, followed by Free trade & better governance. Governance has the most impact on poverty, followed by the Manufacturing & Education scenarios. SA must grow social grants, the informal sector & employment schemes.

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The practice-oriented and user-friendly new African Futures report, drafted with the open-source International Futures software model developed by the Pardee Center for International Futures, contains a wealth of information and specific policy recommendations.  

Find it here:

African Futures Country Report South Africa

 

A recording of the event is available online - find it here:

South Africa’s future in a changing world: the GNU’s two options - Event Recording

 

 

 

 

 

 



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