Videos & Podcasts

How will emerging global trends reshape the role, capacity and legitimacy of Global South governments? Global South states face mounting pressure as climate change, demographic shifts, technology and geopolitical tensions reshape their legitimacy, capacity and democracy. Governments are forced to do more with less and their authority is increasingly shared with non-state actors, which could strengthen resilience or deepen fragility. This event launches the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) African Futures & Innovation programme’s State Futures in the Global South analysis. Speakers will explore how systemic pressures could redefine governance in the decades ahead, and how institutions might respond to complexity. 01 October 2025

ISS

This seminar explores how Africa can diversify its investment sources in a shifting global landscape. Africa is facing growing challenges in securing the finance needed for development. Traditional sources of funding are shrinking, while global political shifts are changing where and how investment flows. This seminar launches the updated Financial Flows report from the Institute for Security Studies’ (ISS) African Futures and Innovation programme. It examines projected investment trends and highlights key policy actions that could help strengthen Africa’s position. With a focus on foreign direct investment as a vital part of development finance, the session uses South Africa as a case study. It explores why some long-standing investors are reducing their involvement, looks at new and emerging partners and outlines practical policy steps to attract investment that supports long-term development. 16 September 2025.

ISS

The Government of National Unity presents opportunities for reform, even amidst global uncertainty. New analysis reveals two starkly different futures for South Africa. One marked by slow growth and persistent unemployment; the other by progress through reforms in governance, infrastructure, education, energy and trade. The Government of National Unity creates opportunities for reform, even amidst global uncertainty. This seminar will draw on strategic foresight and scenario modelling to show how deliberate policy interventions and South Africa’s position within the African Continental Free Trade Area could improve the country’s growth trajectory. 08 July 2025

ISS

19 April 2024

DOI

South Africa’s Government of National Unity promises positive change, but what exactly is possible? Drawing on extensive modelling the seminar explores potential pathways for the country’s growth and development and the effect that pro-growth policies could have on our future. The Institute for Security Studies’ African Futures team presented a long-term forecast of the impact of various sectoral policies on income, poverty, growth and economic size over the next two decades. This seminar was co-hosted by African Futures at the Institute for Security Studies, News24 and the Hanns Seidel Foundation. Moderator: Alize le Roux, Senior Researcher, African Futures & Innovation, ISS Panelists: Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Head, African Futures & Innovation, ISS Xolelwa Kashe-Katiya, Indlulamithi Scenario Project Leader, MISTRA Dhesigen Naidoo, Senior Research Associate, Climate Risk and Human Security, ISS (17 September 2024)

ISS

This seminar explored whether reducing gender inequalities faster can boost the continent’s economic prospects. Although gender equality has been a long-standing subject in development policy debates, there is still disagreement about its impact on economic growth and development. The seminar presented the Institute for Security Studies’ African Futures programme’s latest gender report. The study examined current gender trends in Africa and models the potential impact of reducing gender inequalities more rapidly on the continent’s development prospects. This seminar offered insights for African leaders and policymakers to help overcome obstacles hindering women’s contributions to development. This seminar was co-hosted by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and AUDA-NEPAD. It is the third of four events in the Erudite series on Forecasting African futures: empowering African Union (AU) member states. Moderator: Pamla Gopaul, Senior Programme Officer, Data Analyst, AUDA-NEPAD Presenter: Dr Kouassi Yeboua, Senior Researcher, African Futures & Innovation, ISS Panelists: Aimée-Noël Mbiyozo, Senior Research Consultant, Migration, ISS Dr Zainab Monisola Olaitan, Post-Doctoral Fellow, Centre for Human Rights, University of Pretoria Event enquiry Alize le Roux (30 August 2024)

ISS

What are the key factors that can propel or hinder Africa's path forward in a new multipolar world order? As dissatisfaction with the Western rules-based system grows, the world is shifting towards a more complex global power structure. Africa has a limited role in shaping these orientations. To change that, the continent must improve governance, economic and political integration, and sustained economic growth. This seminar presented global trends and their potential impact on Africa in each of the four scenarios developed by the Institute for Security Studies’ African Futures programme. As the world moves towards a multipolar power configuration, a supportive global environment is vital for Africa. This seminar also identified key factors that can propel or hinder Africa's path forward. This seminar was co-hosted by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and AUDA-NEPAD. It is the first of four events in the Erudite series on Forecasting African futures: empowering African Union (AU) member states. Moderator: Abdel-Nasser Daoud Kinefour, Senior Programme Officer: Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises, AUDA-NEPAD Presenter: Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Head, African Futures & Innovation, ISS Panelists: Koffi Kouakou, Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Africa China Studies, University of Johannesburg Dr Kennedy Mbeva, Research Associate, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge (16 August 2024)

ISS

Africa has made significant progress in key development areas, such as reducing maternal and infant mortality rates, improving food security, and increasing access to critical and basic services. But Africa’s population is expected to double in the next three decades. Given this rapid population growth, can progress be sustained? This seminar provided a practical and constructive perspective on how a high-growth future will impact Africa’s current development path and potential as an investment destination. This seminar was co-hosted by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and the Global Futures Society (GFS) and is the second of three events in the Foresight Modelling Series. Moderator, introduction and welcome: Dr Geci Karuri-Sebina, Associate Professor: Digital Governance, Wits School of Governance Speakers: Enoch Aikins, Researcher, African Futures & Innovation, ISS Saar Ben-Attar, Founder, Ascent Growth Partners South Africa Dr Olugbenga Adesida, Development Policy and Scenarios Planning Specialist and co-founder, African Innovation Summit (18 July 2024)

ISS

Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) President Felix Tshisekedi's first term was tested by questions surrounding his election victory, violence in the east of the country, and the poor state of the economy. His administration registered some success in accelerating DRC’s economic growth from 1.7% in 2020 when COVID-19 struck, to 8.9% in 2022. However, high growth rates have not been accompanied by a structural transformation of the economy. Much work remains for Tshisekedi to improve the lives of Congolese, particularly in taking a longer-term view of its future. This seminar examined the DRC’s development potential across eight key sectors and what inclusive growth and development could deliver for a country that will have a population of 164 million by 2043. This seminar was co-hosted by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and the Hanns Seidel Foundation. Moderator: Piers Pigou, Head of Southern Africa Programme, ISS Presenter: Dr Kouassi Yeboua, Senior Researcher, African Futures & Innovation, ISS Panellists: Dr Blessing Chipanda, Researcher, African Futures & Innovation, ISS Malte Liewerscheidt, Country Director, Hanns Seidel Foundation DRC. (11 June 2024)

ISS

If Africa persists on a fossil fuel-dependent trajectory, the continent’s rapid pace of development will significantly increase energy demand and consequent carbon emissions. If more sustainable energy policies and strategies were adopted, what would Africa’s trajectory look like? A new modelling study by the Institute for Security Studies’, (ISS) African Futures and Innovation team provides answers. This seminar examined Africa's climate and energy futures, shedding light on various scenarios, including the consequences of a global carbon tax and aggressive energy policies, and the transformative effects of transitioning to sustainable practices. The seminar was moderated by Ottilia Anna Maunganidze, Head, Special Projects, ISS. The panelists were Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Head, African Futures & Innovation, ISS Alize le Roux, Senior Researcher, African Futures & Innovation, ISS Saliem Fakir, Executive Director, African Climate Foundation Prof Abubakar Sambo, Chairman, Nigerian Member Committee of the World Energy Council. (10 April 2024)

ISS

On 21 February 2024 the SARChl Chair in Multilevel Government, Law and Development at the Dullah Omar Institute, in collaboration with the Hanns Seidel Foundation, hosted the seminar on ‘A citizen’s perspective on the rule of law - Democracy and elections in South Africa’. The panelists included Prof Henk Kummeling (Rector Magnificus, Distinguished University Professor, Utrecht University and Chairperson Staatscommissie Rechtsstaat (State Commission on the Rule of Law, Netherlands)), Prof Cherrel Africa (Assoc Prof, Dept of Political Studies, UWC) and Mr Michael Hendrickse (WC Provincial Electoral Officer, IEC). The seminar was moderated by Prof Jaap de Visser (National Research Chair in Multilevel Government, Law & Development, Dullah Omar Institute).

DOI

This was the title of a hybrid seminar at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria that launched an important new study. The new report by the African Futures and Innovation team shows persistent gender inequalities in Africa, despite progress in some areas. The evidence-based research analyses the impact that reduced gender inequality can have on inclusive development – and the authors share specific policy recommendations. The international launch event in Pretoria saw nuanced debates with African expert panelists and an engaged audience. (16 Nov 2023).

ISS

At this well-attended hybrid seminar in Pretoria, our partner team "Justice and Violence Prevention" in the Institute for Security Studies facilitated the launch of a unique new book, the autobiography of Sharon Jephta, retired Lt.-Gen. of the South African Police Service. The introduction by the author was followed by insightful contributions from the panelists and a lively discussion with the audience. Senior representatives of the South African Police Service leadership praised the book and strongly recommended using it in future police training at different levels as well (7 June 2023).

What role can South Africa's vibrant Civil Society play around the elections next year and beyond? That was the question discussed during a very productive panel discussion held at the Nelson Mandela Foundation in Johannesburg with renowned speakers and a large audience. Among the panelists were Terry Tselane (Institute of Election Management Services in Africa, former Vice Chair, Independent Electoral Commission), Qaanitah Hunter (News24), Lindiwe Mazibuko (Futurelect), Prof Jaap de Visser (Dullah Omar Institute) and Cedo Madubedube (Equal Education), with Lukhona Mnguni (Rivonia Circle) facilitating the engaging discussion (12 October, 2023).

NMF

This hybrid seminar on a crucial topic in Rosebank, Johannesburg, launched a new ISS Africa study of Kenya’s August 2022 elections, which shows that while social media encourages freedom of expression, it provides a lucrative marketplace for influence and disinformation. What lessons are there for other African countries and South Africa in particular, ahead of its 2024 national polls? The expert authors were in conversation with renowned SA journalist Ferial Haffajee (8 August, 2023)

ISS

This first seminar in a series co-hosted by AUDA-NEPAD and the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) online explored Africa’s population future and the potential impact of a more rapid demographic transition and investments in health on development outcomes. Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Head of African Futures and Innovation, ISS, presented his team’s research and discussed it with Janet Byaruhanga, AUDA-NEPAD (23 June, 2023)

ISS

Rising tensions between China and the West are creating global divisions that limit Africa’s development potential. Under the current trajectory, the continent won’t achieve its goals of economic growth, improvements in income and poverty reduction. To withstand these headwinds, Africa’s leaders need to unite in their pursuit of the continent’s interests. This ISS Seminar explored four global scenarios and their impact on Africa, drawing from the analysis in the "Africa in the World" report, available on the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) African Futures website. (22 November 2022)

ISS

The 20th Nelson Mandela Annual Lecture was held on the 12th of November 2022 in Durban, South Africa, by H.E. Mia Amor Mottley, Prime Minister of Barbados. As the Hanns Seidel Foundation, we were honoured to support this important event again this year. Watch our short introductory video we have created for the occasion of this historic lecture.

HSF

On 25 February 2022, South Africa’s National Commissioner Khehla Sitole joined a long list of police chiefs whose contracts were prematurely terminated over the last 22 years. This conversation between Dr Irvin Kinnes, Associate Professor of Criminology at the Centre of Criminology, University of Cape Town, and Caryn Dolley, Investigative Journalist and book author, unpacked some of the recent scandals and opportunities in the service. The experts on police leadership politics discussed the kind of leadership needed to rebuild public trust in the South African Police Service and help it realise its significant potential.

ISS

Targeted responses are needed to break South Africa’s cycle of intergenerational violence, promote dialogue and dismantle discriminatory gender norms. At this seminar, the Centre for Analytics and Behavioural Change and heCareZA presented innovative tools and methods for reducing discrimination and violence against women.

ISS

The murder of 16 people by gunmen at a tavern in Gauteng in July has put mass shootings on the map, but such offences are fairly common. Between 2017/18 and 2019/20, police recorded 314 incidents where three or more people were killed in a single attack. It is worrying that these crimes increased by almost 50% in that period. This seminar explored what can be done to address this growing trend.

ISS

This Webinar discussion between Adv. Madolo and Prof. De Visser explores the successes and challenges in prosecuting corruption at this level of government. The Webinar was hosted by Africa Criminal Justice Reform and the Multilevel Government Project, both programmes of the Dullah Omar Institute. The National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) must prosecute corruption at all levels of government. While much of the focus has been on the capture of national government and national state-owned enterprises (SOEs), there has also been widespread corruption in municipalities. In an opinion-editorial (https://bit.ly/3SEq2bA), Adv Barry Madolo, Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) in the Eastern Cape, has described some successes enjoyed by the NPA in prosecuting corruption in municipalities in the Eastern Cape. There is highly specific legislation relating to municipalities, and to municipal finances, such as the Municipal Finance Management Act, with which prosecutors must be familiar in order to successfully to prosecute offences relating to municipal finances. Prof Jaap de Visser of the Dullah Omar Institute is a leading expert in the field of multi-level government and municipal legislation. He co-authored a research paper (https://bit.ly/3w00gVu) on the combating of corruption in municipalities in the Western Cape, which also addresses the role of the NPA.

DOI

This seminar co-hosted by the African Futures and Innovations team at the Institute for Security Studies explored how four global scenarios could impact on ties between African states and the associated changes in power relations. The four global scenarios are a Divided World (current trajectory), a World at War, a Sustainable World or a Growth World (6 September 2022, part 4 of seminar series).

ISS

China has rapidly become Africa’s largest trading partner, and its influence on the continent grows exponentially. To explore how relations between Asia and Africa could evolve in future, this "African Futures and Innovation" ISS seminar discussed four scenarios: a Divided World, a World at War, a Growth World and a Sustainable World (24 August 2022, part 2 of seminar series)

ISS

This dialogue was held at the Nelson Mandela Foundation in Johannesburg, with a live stream on the interactive platform of the Foundation. Anton du Plessis, Deputy National Director of Public Prosecutions, gave the keynote address, with Prof Sandy Africa and Ms Ottilia Maunganidze as respondents on the panel and a discussion facilitated by Sello Hatang, Chief Executive of the Nelson Mandela Foundation (29 June 2022).

Nelson Mandela Foundation

How do we ensure ethics and integrity in local government, in particular focusing on the role of councillors and senior management? This webinar engages with this question and locates it in (1) the applicable legal framework, (2) ongoing debates about professionalisation of local government and (3) observations about the practice of integrity management in municipalities. The speakers (Jaap de Visser, Phindile Ntliziywana and Fatima Rawat) share recent research, tools and insights into the topic.

At this joint event (24 February 2022) of the Hanns Seidel Foundation, the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) and News24, the research team from the GI-TOC presented its newest research on the crisis in Northern Mozambique and gave insights into the relationship between the insurgency and illicit trafficking routes in Northern Mozambique, the knock-on effect of the conflict on regional trafficking flows and extremism in neighbouring countries as well as how efforts to rebuild Cabo Delgado can counter the corroding effects of organised crime and corruption.

HSF

At this joint event (15th February 2022), Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Head of the African Futures and Innovation Programme at the ISS, presented on the impact of the ANC’s possible choices at the party’s elective conference 2022 on the 2024 and 2029 elections, and discussed them with Lindiwe Mazibuko, Co-Founder & CEO of Futurelect and News24's Adriaan Basson and Mpumelelo Mkhabela.

HSF

More than 20 countries are now helping Mozambique to fight insurgents in Cabo Delgado province, train its army or deliver humanitarian aid. Will this turn the situation around? A new Institute for Security Studies (ISS) policy brief on the situation in Mozambique warns that coordination among these foreign missions and tailoring the training being provided is vital to ensure effective responses. This seminar discussed the progress and gaps in the current approaches to stabilising northern Mozambique. Speakers included Ambassador Claude Nikobisanzwe, High Commissioner of Rwanda in Mozambique, Colonel Omar Saranga, Spokesperson of the Mozambican military and Prof Mpho Molomo, Head of SADC Mission in Mozambique.

HSF/ ISS

The Nelson Mandela Foundation hosted this virtual dialogue with keynote speaker Patricia de Lille, Minister of Public Works and Infrastructure, who was in conversation with Adv Tembeka Ngcukaitobi. (July 2021)

NMF

This seminar launched three new ISS reports on evidence-based policing by Dr Anine Kriegler from the Centre of Criminology (University of Cape Town). The seminar discussed how police and researchers can collaborate to explore 'what works' in SA policing (July 2021)

ISS

In response to the four-year insurgency in Cabo Delgado, Southern African leaders agreed in June 2021 to deploy a Standby Force of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in Mozambique. This seminar was co-hosted by the HSF, the Institute for Security Studies and News24; it discussed prospects and options for SADC’s forces in the area.

HSF; News 24

This seminar on “Crime trends in the time of Covid-19” held on the occasion of the new South African quarterly crime statistics just released shed light on the impact of the pandemic, the lockdown restrictions and the current socio economic crises on the development of crime in the country (May 2021)

This special online seminar was co-hosted with the ISS Pretoria and the CSIS Washington. We discussed with experts from the EU, the US and Africa if and how a new Transatlantic Partnership between Europe and the US can also contribute to stronger relationships with Africa.

From Large metros to small local councils, municipalities across the country are in crisis. Corruption is rife, service delivery is sporadic, coalitions are unstable, and only one in six councils received clean audits in the latest Auditor General’s report. With just a year to go before the next local government elections, concern is growing about the underperformance of so many municipalities. In this webinar the speakers considered not just the problems and challenges facing the sector, but also some possible interventions. 27 November 2025.

CPLO

This seminar explores how Africa can diversify its investment sources in a shifting global landscape. Africa is facing growing challenges in securing the finance needed for development. Traditional sources of funding are shrinking, while global political shifts are changing where and how investment flows. This seminar launches the updated Financial Flows report from the Institute for Security Studies’ (ISS) African Futures and Innovation programme. It examines projected investment trends and highlights key policy actions that could help strengthen Africa’s position. With a focus on foreign direct investment as a vital part of development finance, the session uses South Africa as a case study. It explores why some long-standing investors are reducing their involvement, looks at new and emerging partners and outlines practical policy steps to attract investment that supports long-term development. 17 September 2025.

There is clearly a major crisis at the top levels of the SAPS, with accusations of corruption against the Police Minister and a Deputy National Commissioner by the KZN Provincial Commissioner, and the recent arrest of the head of crime intelligence and other senior crime intelligence officers. Two parliamentary committees are preparing to investigate, and the Madlanga Commission of Enquiry will soon begin its own investigations. A new (acting) Police Minister is expected to assume office in August. All of this makes for uncertainty and instability at the top of SAPS, and must be having a negative effect on the morale of thousands of ordinary police officers. It also undermines public trust in our most important law enforcement institution. Our panellists discuss how the current situation came about, what it means for governance and institutional stability, what Parliament’s role is in addressing the crisis, and what steps should be taken to provide solid, professional and independent leadership for SAPS. 29 July 2025.

After 30 years, South Africa’s voters forced the ANC into a government of national unity – and the ANC graciously accepted. Does that mean anything at all for the rest of the region, with its countries so closely bound together economically but so different in almost every other way? 16 July 2024

News 24

Drawing on strategic foresight and scenario modelling, this seminar will examine Africa’s future in a rapidly evolving global order. Global trends from geopolitical shifts to climate and technology will shape Africa’s future. Speakers at this seminar will consider Africa’s position within a range of alternative global futures, and what they mean for the continent’s development, agency and long-term transformation. Perspectives will be provided on how leadership, governance and planning can see Africa achieve sustainable change in a shifting world order. 04 June 2025

ISS

In this webinar the speakers reflected on coalition politics and governance from the perspective of academia, the Kenyan judiciary, and non-governmental organisations. This webinar provided a platform to continue the conversation and debate on the impact of a government of unity on governance in South Africa. Some of the expectations for the GNU were explored and the role communities play in a GNU. The panelists included Prof Jaap de Visser (National Research Chair in Multilevel Government, Law & Development, Dullah Omar Institute, UWC), Prof Joleen Steyn Kotze (Chief Research Specialist, Human Sciences Research Council), Mr Lukhona Mnguni (Acting Executive Director, Rivonia Circle), Dr Nonhlanhla Ngcobo (Lecturer, Faculty of Law, North-West University) and Dr Conrad Bosire (Independent Consultant & former Chief of Staff in the Kenya Judiciary). The webinar was moderated by Adv Mike Pothier (Catholic Parliamentary Liaison Office). 31 July 2024

DOI

The Tutu Courageous Leadership Course is part of the Foundation’s Leading for Humanity programme, which nurtures, supports, and trains aspiring leaders towards values-based, inclusive, and humane decisions and actions towards social healing and change. As part of this work, the course aims to inspire and empower viewers to become more courageously engaged in their lives and in the lives of others by focusing on the core internal and interpersonal qualities needed to take consistent action to heal themselves and society. The primary target audience in South Africa is aged 15-35 years, but the content will also be shared on platforms that are accessible internationally. 31 July 2024

Desmond and Leah Tutu Legacy Foundation

Effective forecasting and strategic planning will allow Africa to navigate a future of rapid change and complex challenges. Join us for the inaugural African Futures conference on 29 October, when 22 carefully selected speakers will present an array of forecasts, scenarios and research across six themes on Africa’s long-term future. The conference aims to enhance forecasting methodologies for African contexts, identify trends and challenges, establish a network of practitioners, and generate insights to drive sustainable development and resilience across the continent. The conference will conclude with an introductory training session on the International Futures forecasting tool that underpins the ISS’ African Futures and Innovation programme’s work. 29 October 2024.

ISS

The quickest way for the South African Police Service (SAPS) to improve public safety is by focusing on firearm crime and violence. Guns play a major role in pushing up levels of murder, including femicide, and other forms of violent organised crime. These weapons are used in most serious robberies and by gangs involved in extortion and other crimes. This seminar discussed the scale and impact of firearm crime and how to strengthen police responses to it. A new Institute for Security Studies (ISS) policy brief on mapping firearm crimes was launched. Moderator: Dhiya Matai, Consultant, ISS Panelists: Major General Norman Sekhukune, Crime Registrar, SAPS Jenni Irish-Qhobosheane, Researcher, Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime Dr Freddy Hlungwani, Deputy Director, Gauteng Department of Community Safety David Bruce, Policing Expert, ISS (17 October 2024)

ISS

Africa’s overreliance on a narrow range of products for manufacturing and trade makes it vulnerable to external shocks and restricts development and poverty reduction. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could transform Africa's trade landscape, reduce the exposure to external shocks, diversify exports and boost economic performance. The seminar explored progress and problems associated with implementing the AfCFTA, highlighting the trade-offs between growth and inclusive growth. Discussions drew on the latest ISS African Futures study, which models the impact of full AfCFTA implementation. This seminar was co-hosted by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and AUDA-NEPAD. It is the fourth and final event in the Erudite series on Forecasting African futures: empowering African Union (AU) member states. Moderator: Mahao Mahoa, Advisor to the African Policy Bridge Tank Programme, AUDA-NEPAD Presenter: Dr Blessing Chipanda, Senior Researcher, African Futures & Innovation, ISS Panelists: Dr Jean-Bertrand Azapmo, Principal Adviser to the AU Commissioner for Economic Development, Trade, Tourism, Industry and Minerals, African Union Commission Thembekile Mlangeni, Director of Market Access, Department of Trade, Industry, and Competition (06 September 2024)

ISS

The continent is on track to become a major global carbon emitter if the current fossil fuel-dependent trajectory prevails. Africa exports much of its fuel sources, yet a large portion of its people lacks access to electricity. With rapid population growth and increased energy demand, the continent will become a major global carbon emitter if the current fossil fuel-dependent trajectory prevails. What are the implications of a reasonable transition to renewables in Africa and how important is a global carbon tax to finance that transition? This seminar examined findings from two reports on Africa's climate and energy futures, developed by the Institute for Security Studies’ African Futures programme. The reports explore various scenarios that track the impact of a global carbon tax, aggressive energy policies, and sustainable practices. This seminar was co-hosted by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and AUDA-NEPAD. It is the second of four events in the Erudite series on Forecasting African futures: empowering African Union (AU) member states. Moderator: Pamla Gopaul, Senior Programme Officer, Data Analyst, AUDA – NEPAD Presenter: Alize le Roux, Senior Researcher, African Futures & Innovation, ISS Panelists: Dr Kennedy Manduna, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Wits School of Governance Kgaugelo Mkumbeni, Research Officer, Climate Risk and Human Security, ISS (23 August 2024)

ISS

Despite its minimal contribution to global carbon emissions, Africa faces a critical crossroads. As the continent’s population booms in the next 30 years, so will its energy demand and consequent carbon emissions from fossil fuels. What would Africa’s trajectory look like if more sustainable energy policies and strategies were adopted? This seminar examined Africa’s climate and energy futures, shedding light on various strategies and challenges, including the consequences of a global carbon tax and aggressive energy policies and the transformative effects of transitioning to sustainable practices. This seminar was co-hosted by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and the Global Futures Society (GFS) and is the third of three events in the Foresight Modelling Series. Moderator, introduction and welcome: Roland Tatnall, Owner & Principal, Naimon Capital Speakers Alize le Roux, Senior Researcher, African Futures & Innovation, ISS Tanja Hichert, Futures & Foresight Practitioner James Mnyupe, Presidential Economic Advisor and Green Hydrogen Commissioner, Government of The Republic of Namibia (25 July 2024)

ISS

The world is moving towards a complex, multipolar global power configuration and growing disaffection with the Western rules-based system. To offset Africa’s limited role in shaping global orientations, the continent needs better governance, deeper economic and political integration, and rapid and sustained economic growth. This seminar explored global trends and their potential impact on Africa in four alternative global scenarios. This seminar was co-hosted by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and the Global Futures Society (GFS) and is the first of three events in the Foresight Modelling Series. Moderator, introduction and welcome: Dr Patrick Noack, Executive Director, Future, Foresight and Imagination, Dubai Future Foundation Speakers: Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Head, African Futures & Innovation, ISS Priyal Singh, Senior Researcher, Africa in the World, ISS Dr Julius Gatune, UNESCO Chair of Future Literacy Laboratory (11 July 2024)

ISS

The track record of the South African Police Service (SAPS) has measurably declined since 2012. The detection rate, for example, plummeted 61% to a low of 12.5% in 2022/23. Organised crime, murder and rape have increased and public perceptions of safety have fallen. The country’s new administration has an opportunity to reverse these alarming trends. Practical changes in five areas of policing could reverse the negative safety trajectory. This seminar presented the Institute for Security Studies’ evidence-based recommendations. This event was part of the Driving Justice Series: Transforming Systems and Empowering Communities Moderator: Janine Rauch, Consultant and Governance Expert, Justice and Violence Prevention, ISS Pretoria Panelists: Lt-general (Retired) Sharon Jephta, author of Serving with Integrity, Commitment and Excellence Gareth Newham, Head, Justice and Violence Prevention, ISS Pretoria TJ Masilela, Deputy Chairperson, National Community Policing Forum (CPF) Board and Chairperson, Gauteng CPF Board Andries Sekgetho, Head of Portfolio – SAPS, Auditor-General of South Africa (27 June 2024)

ISS

As the resourcing and performance of the South African Police Service (SAPS) has deteriorated since 2012, rates of murder and violent organised crime have soared. After the 29 May 2024 general election, the selection of a police minister will be one of the most important decisions that the country’s next president makes. What qualities should the minister have and what must she or he do to reverse the deterioration in policing and public safety? (14 May 2024)

ISS

The removal from office of Judges John Hlophe and Nkola Motata can be seen as an example of constitutional provisions and processes working as intended, albeit at snail’s pace. At the same time, the lapses in integrity that led to the impeachments inevitably reflect badly on the judiciary as an institution and may undermine the public’s confidence in the courts. Panellists at this CPLO seminar were Ms Judith February, Executive Officer, Freedom Under Law Mr Mbekezeli Benjamin, Research & Advocacy Officer, Judges Matter Prof Hugh Corder, Emeritus Professor of Public Law, UCT Ms Karyn Maughan, Legal Journalist, News24. Facilitator: Adv Mike Pothier, Programme Manager, CPLO. (11 April 2024)

CPLO

This hybrid ISS seminar launched and discussed a new report of the Justice and Violence Prevention Programme, authored by Policing Expert David Bruce. The Policy Brief uses data and analysis to paint a stark, nuanced picture of record murder rates in the country and the reasons behind them. It focuses on the 4 Provinces with the highest murder rates and makes productive, urgent policy recommendations. The author shared the panel with Ziyanda Stuurman, policing expert and author of Can We Be Safe? The Future of Policing in SA, and Siphelele Ngobese, Senior Researcher, South African Cities Network (14 Nov 2023).

ISS

This hybrid Seminar at the Institute for Security Studies launched a new book by Mark Shaw, Director of the Global Initiative against Transnational Organised Crime. “Breaking the Bombers” analyses how the South African Police managed to break PAGAD, People against Gangsterism and Drugs, a notorious death squad in Cape Town, over 20 years ago. Panelists discussed at the launch event in Pretoria what can be learnt from this historic success for tackling organised crime in South Africa today. Fascinating insights were shared by the author and the other renowned speakers, Bulelani Ngcuka, former National Director of Public Prosecutions, and Anton du Plessis, Deputy National Director of Public Prosecutions (12 October 2023).

ISS

On the current trajectory, the gap between Africa and the rest of the world is likely to increase. Four recent shocks, including the current war in Ukraine, have accelerated this trend. The ISS has modelled Africa’s development potential across various sectors. This seminar launches a new report which examines the ‘development ceiling’ that the global context places on Africa in four global scenarios. The report “Africa in the world” is available on the African Futures website.

ISS

As part of its ongoing efforts to contribute to civic education in South Africa, the Hanns Seidel Foundation's Civics Academy hosted an event on the topic of Civic education and participation in South Africa. Chaired by Wantu Madonsela from the ThuMa Foundation and together with representatives from the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC), the Department of Basic Education (DBE), Civil Society Organisations (like Rivonia Circle) and active citizens we explored the questions: Beyond voting, how can we shape our democracy? And, who is responsible for Civic Education?

Civics Academy

In South Africa, crime, policing and safety are loaded terms. They are unpacked by authors Ziyanda Stuurman and Rofhiwa Maneta in their books 'Can We Be Safe?' and 'A Man, A Fire, A Corpse'. Stuurman interrogates the country’s fraught history of policing, courts and prisons. Maneta uses the story of his father, Captain Amos Maneta, to illustrate the psychological toll that policing exacts on police officials and their families. Panellists explored the meaning of police work in a society characterised by inequality, violence and precariousness. They discussed reforms that can heal a broken police institution and the wounded individuals who make up its ranks.

ISS

Local governments have a vital role to play in preventing crime and keeping their communities safe. But how far do municipal crime fighting powers extend, and which functions are likely to deliver the greatest safety dividends? This seminar launched a new report by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in cooperation with the South African Local Government Association (SALGA). Speakers discussed municipal powers and capacity to enforce by-laws and traffic regulations, and protect infrastructure. They considered the challenges local governments face in strengthening their role in preventing and responding to crime.

ISS

Immigrants are increasingly blamed for many of South Africa's socio-economic problems. Some of the myths are that immigrants commit most of the crime, take jobs and overburden public services. These false narratives are routinely voiced by politicians and government officials, reinforcing and inflaming negative public sentiment to the detriment of South Africa's economy and people. This seminar launched a new report on the number of immigrants in South Africa and the extent to which they contribute negatively or positively to the country.

ISS

Although most African countries are former European colonies, they are economically increasingly tied to Asia. As trade and infrastructure from China steadily shift Africa's gaze eastward, the continent's traditional partnerships are being tested by migration, populism and the fall-out of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This ISS seminar examined relations between North America, Europe and Africa under four scenarios: a Divided World, a World at War, a Growth World and a Sustainable World (31 August 2022, part 3 of seminar series)

ISS

Global upheaval is pervasive as power and influence shift Eastward, the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine takes hold, and pandemics such as COVID-19 and global health emergencies like monkeypox take their toll. In the first of a series, this ISS “African Futures and Innovation” seminar explored how global trends could impact Africa under four long-term scenarios. The scenarios reflect a focus on sustainability, economic growth, a retreat from globalisation (closest to the current trajectory) and lastly, a world at war (10 August 2022, part 1 of seminar series).

ISS

At this critical Dialogue hosted at the Nelson Mandela Foundation and online, speakers included Asanda Luwaca, Executive Chairperson of the National Youth Development Agency, Dr Armand Bam, Head of Social Impact, University of Stellenbosch Business School, Commissioner Bokankatla Joseph Malatji, South African Human Rights Commission, Collins Ombajo, Action Network for the Disabled, Kenya, Lidia Pretorius, Independent Disability Inclusion Consultant and Activist and Nontobeko Mdhluli, South African Employers’ Forum for Disability (17 August, 2022)

NMF

With an introductory statement by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, this special seminar with about 500 participants, hosted by the Institute for Security Studies and Daily Maverick, saw the launch of the enterprising new ISS data and knowledge platform "African Futures" (22 June 2022).

ISS

Organised groups such as Operation Dudula increasingly target African immigrants in South Africa. Building on myths about foreign nationals and anti-migrant attitudes, widespread violence is becoming more likely. An outbreak similar to the deadly 2008 xenophobic violence that spread rapidly across the country must be averted. This event, co-hosted by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and the Institute for the Future of Knowledge, University of Johannesburg, discussed how civil society and government need to proactively counter this trend and extinguish the flames of xenophobic sentiment before it is too late.

HSF

This seminar, co-hosted by the Institute for Security Studies and the University of Witwatersrand, discussed the findings from an evidence review of interventions that aimed to prevent violence against women and children. The analysis shows that parenting programmes are an important element of prevention. A model for costing the scale-up of these valuable programmes was also presented.

ISS

At this joint seminar, Dr Len Ishmael presented her new research report “Beyond aid – Making the EU strategy with Africa work for Africa”. Participants from Africa and Europe discussed with her, Dr Cilliers (ISS), Markus Ferber, MEP (Chairperson of the HSF), and Bertrand Soret (EEAS) how the EU can support Africa’s economic transformation. (10 February, 2022)

HSF

In 2021 we are celebration 30 years of successful work and cooperation with our amazing South African partners, committed to promote the fundamental values of the South African Constitution, the rule of law, civic education and socio-economic development.

HSF

The 19th Nelson Mandela Annual Lecture on the theme "The Rule of Law, International Criminal Justice and Sustainable Development" was delivered by Fatou Bensouda, former Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, on the 25th of August 2021.

Nelson Mandela Foundation

The HSF supports the Nelson Mandela Annual Lecture on 25 August 2021. Watch a short video on this year’s topic “The Rule of Law, International Criminal Justice and Sustainable Development” with South Africa’s former Public Protector, Professor for Social Justice, Thuli Madonsela.

HSF

Dr Sydney Mufamadi, Minister of Safety & Security from 1994 – 1999 and Mr Gareth Newham, Head of the Justice and Violence Prevention Programme, Institute for Security Studies, discussed the ongoing crises at leadership level in the South African Police and the destabilising effect on the institution and society.

HSF

This ISS seminar launched two new ISS reports - a randomised control trial study of a sports-based intervention, and a review of three longstanding community-based initiatives. Speakers discussed rich learnings for violence prevention initiatives which these reports can provide (May 2021)

ISS

Brief summary video: Dr Sydney Mufamadi, Minister of Safety & Security from 1994 – 1999 and Mr Gareth Newham, Head of the Justice and Violence Prevention Programme, Institute for Security Studies, discussed the ongoing crises at leadership level in the South African Police and the destabilising effect on the institution and society.

HSF; CPLO

ISS research report launch: How the DRC can transform its long-term prospects

ISS

Virtual Courtrooms: How to Do Online Court Hearings Properly

UCT

Invitation for online seminar co-hosted with ISS and CSIS

"The State of the Judiciary" - CPLO online seminar

New open access book by Dr. Jakkie Cilliers, ISS

ISS

Seminar: Access to Justice and Courts Online

UCT

HSF Interview with Dr Glenda Gray - full recording with German subtitles

Summary video on the State of the Judiciary

CPLO

Is a social compact key to saving South Africa's economy? Moeletsi Mbeki (SAIIA), Jakkie Cilliers (ISS) and Xolelwa Kashe-Katiya (MISTRA) debated this question at a seminar co-hosted with the Institute for Security Studies and News24 (9 March 2021)

ISS

This event co-hosted in March 2021 by the ISS and Chatham House introduced new ISS research and explored the potential long-term impact of political reforms, improved agricultural productivity, the use of renewable energy and investment in the knowledge economy on Algeria’s development prospects.

ISS

Nelson Mandela Foundation Dialogue with former First Lady Graça Machel, award-winning Zimbabwean author Tsitsi Dangerembga and the First Lady of Namibia Monica Geingos (December 2020)

NMF

This seminar was co-hosted by the ISS and the Embassy of the Republic of Tunisia in South Africa in collaboration with North-West University in South Africa and the University of Tunis, in December 2020.

ISS

New ISS research shows what needs to be done to achieve economic prosperity.

ISS

GIBS seminar recording - Unpacking Africa’s post-Covid Recovery Options: Towards Health, Economic and Social Transformation

GIBS

Dialogue held by the Nelson Mandela Foundation, the Land and Accountability Research Centre and the Public Affairs Research Institute (November 2020)

NMF

Visiting Monwabisi Park, a community centre in Khayelitsha, one of South Africa's biggest townships - and reflecting on mitigating the impact of the pandemic

HSF

How can the country change its current path to one of prosperity?

ISS

Impact of Covid-19 in Africa. A scenario analysis to 2030 - A multi partner research project supported by HSF provides first comprehensive long-term scenario analyses on the potential impact of the pandemic on the continent

GIBS

Authors Profs Carolyn Hamilton, Jacob Dlamini & Imraan Coovadia in a discussion on their new books exploring the nexuses of archive-discourse, public-private & violence-peacemaking (October 2020)

NMF

Joint event of the Institute for Security Studies and Hanns Seidel Foundation's Brussels Office

HSF

At this ISS Seminar held in September 2020, experts and high-level decision makers from Africa and Europe explored the potential focus areas of the new partnership between the two continents currently being discussed, and priorities which Africa’s negotiators should push for.

COVID-19 has accelerated the need for South Africa to unlock long-term growth

ISS

Panel discussion with renowned speakers from academia, business and civil society, hosted by the Nelson Mandela Foundation (July 2020)

NMF

18th Nelson Mandela Annual Lecture delivered online by UN Secretary-General António Guterres live from the UN headquarters in New York City - hosted by the Nelson Mandela Foundation with HSF support (18 July 2020)

NMF

Conversation with SARS Commissioner Edward Kieswetter

CPLO

New Policy Brief of the Institute for Security Studies

ISS

Summary video about online event with Kimi Makwetu (SA Auditor General 2013-2020)

CPLO

HSF video shown at Nelson Mandela Annual Lecture with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres

HSF

Panel discussion with renowned speakers from academia, business and civil society, hosted by the Nelson Mandela Foundation (July 2020)

NMF

"Targeted policy interventions can significantly brighten the country’s economic future"

ISS

New ISS research: What will it take to create a ‘Great Zimbabwe’?

ISS

Online Discussion:“The Social Market Economy: A Model for South Africa?”

CPLO

Visualising key insights of the new book by Dr Jakkie Cilier, ISS - "Africa First! is the authoritative guide for policy makers to radically change Africa’s growth trajectory"

ISS

"Despite enormous security and development challenges, clear and directed interventions could improve the region's prospects"

ISS

Recording of online panel discussion with diverse experts and experienced practitioners, hosted with ISS Pretoria (May 2020)

ISS

Online launch of "Africa First! Igniting a growth revolution", a new book by Dr Jakkie Cilliers (ISS), May 2020

ISS

Nelson Mandela Foundation event: Mining industry experts, the producers of the documentary Dying for Gold and members of civil society discuss the South African gold mining industry, its legacy and its future (October 2019)

NMF

"In an increasingly polarised world, how we tell stories of movements can be as important as the movement itself." Nelson Mandela Foundation dialogue (June 2019)

NMF

Africa has contributed little to climate change, but is disproportionately vulnerable to its effects. This seminar shares findings from a new ISS report projecting vulnerability to climate change and adaptive capacity in Africa to 2063 (November 2018)

ISS

Exhibition Launch at the Nelson Mandela Foundation (April 2019)

NMF

"Conflict trends in Africa suggest an increase – how can we reverse this emerging threat?"

ISS

ISS Seminar based on new research report "Getting to Africa's Demographic Dividend" (September 2018)

ISS

Former US President Barack Obama gave the 16th Nelson Mandela Annual Lecture in July 2018 in front of thousands in Johannesburg - Millions followed worldwide. The event was hosted by the Nelson Mandela Foundation, with HSF support

NMF

Nelson Mandela Tribute event in Johannesburg with Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie as keynote speaker (December 2018)

NMF; SABC

"In his new book, Fate of the Nation, Jakkie Cilliers argues that the power struggle between the‘traditionalists’ and the ‘reformers’ in the ANC has paralysed the party, leading to the inept leadership and poor service delivery that now plague the country." (August 2017)

ISS

Oprah Winfrey in Johannesburg, hosted by the Nelson Mandela Foundation as part of Dialogue events marking Madiba's 100th Birthday (November 2018)

"As the world rapidly changes due to technology, its role is becoming more prominent in the political, criminal justice and social spheres. However, these technologies may have unintended consequences and complexities far beyond our imaginations." (Nelson Mandela Foundation, May 2018)

NMF

The African Futures and Innovation programme at the ISS uses historical trends to identify future growth opportunities.

ISS