New research report
"Africa in the world"
Overview of Global Scenarios
AFI, ISS; Jakkie Cilliers (2022) Africa in the World. Published online at futures.issafrica.org
The new report forms part of the new African Futures platform, a unique data and knowledge hub recently launched by the AFI Team at a public event with hundreds of participants.
Everyone interested in the future of Africa and possible global scenarios should read the new report - find it here:
The report describes 4 possible scenarios for our global future, Sustainable World, Divided World, Growth World and World at War.
It analyses Africa's development potential and makes recommendations for different stakeholders.
We share key outcomes of the research here:
1. Even if no African country emerges as a major ‘power player’, the distribution of power in the 21st century will shape the context African states operate in. The question for Africa is if that context facilitates more rapid, inclusive and sustainable development.
2. In other words, this means Africa can only materialise its potential in a development oriented global environment. Actors which bring instability are not contributing to the global environment which AU member states need to achieve the objectives set out in the Agenda 2063.
3. The ISS asked the question: What impact does the global environment have on Africa’s development trajectory, considering that, on the current path - although Africa is developing - the income gap between Africa and the rest of the World is increasing further?
4. Example: Instead of 120 million extremely poor people, Nigeria could, by 2043, have only 44 million extremely poor people in the Sustainable World scenario described by the new African Futures report - 11% instead of 31% of its population.
5. Africa’s leaders need to be cognisant of the limited space for the continent's development, and the uphill battle to realise the Sustainable World scenario as set out in this report.
6. Africa’s foreign policy and development efforts should unequivocally support the policies and approaches that would advance this ‘best of world’ objective.
7. The current trajectory towards a Divided World places a cap on Africa’s development potential. For all the progress that globalisation has unlocked, such as through trade and knowledge transfers, the current global rules-based system inevitably embeds privilege.
8. A world with five permanent seats and a veto right within the UN Security Council is regularly touted as the most glaring example of the huge global ramifications the shortcomings of the current system have. There is much that needs to change.
9. The West needs to differentiate between China and Russia when it comes to Africa, and resist simplistic narratives.
10. A larger group of countries that share similar aspirations (democracy, individual human rights, etc.) as the West, will continue to dominate globally and maintain a technological, wealth and a power advantage even over a potential Chinese–Russian axis, for decades to come.
11. The emergence of China as the most powerful country will inevitably reshape global relations.
12. However, given the combined material power of the West as well, this trend could culminate in efforts towards an alternative global order that is distinct from the so-called liberal international order - more likely though is the evolution of the latter.
13. Strengthening Africa’s own investment and financing models, with outside support where appropriate, would boost the continent's fortunes.
14. Looking to the West, what Africa needs is for Western governments to find ways to de-risk investment by its banks and the private sector in the continent. Not aid but investments and private business will create jobs needed urgently.
15. Changing perceptions requires ongoing engagement, communication and much greater visibility of Africa’s development efforts in Europe and North America. It requires massive student exchange programmes, regular trade fairs and political dialogue
16. The current trajectory towards a Divided World would likely accelerate the continent’s myriad ongoing and emergent challenges.
17. This is evident in the extent to which Moscow has already been able to lever its limited assets in energy, arms and military cooperation to pursue an anti-Western agenda in Africa to the detriment of stability and development.
18. Africas priority is to maximise sustainable development prospects and create a next-generation rules based global system. Africa must embark on a two-speed approach where some states commit earlier to higher governance standards than others.
19. The current trajectory towards a Divided World limits Africa's development potential: 4 % more carbon released by 2043, 6 % lower GDP per capita and 48 % higher extreme poverty than in best case scenario. Even though it seems difficult, the Sustainable World scenario must be pursued.
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The new digital platform African Futures is a unique resource that sheds light on the African continent and its 54 countries, including economic communities and regions. It consists of a geographic and a thematic section and contains over 4500 interactive charts, more than one million words, in-depth analysis and about 80 videos.
The website models and forecasts possible development paths towards the vision of the African Union's "Agenda 2063". The team developed 11 different scenarios, among them the potential of a low-end manufacturing transition, an agricultural revolution, the potential impact of leapfrogging, better education, improved health outcomes, trade and growth and good governance, democracy, and other key thematic areas. As such, the evidence based research combines long term scenarios and specific policy recommendations aiming to facilitate inclusive, sustainable growth and development that will enhance the lives of Africans.
Find the comprehensive new platform here:
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